Sunday, February 3, 2008

IHSG – Potentially to make new highest record.




After resisted at the resistance range of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,
IHSG start to perform the uptrend signals and indicating to continue
the rally. The positive strength signals for medium term could be
monitored at the major stocks, such as:
AALI, ANTM ASII, BBRI, BMRI, BUMI, INCO, INTP, ISAT, LSIP, SGRO, SMGR,
TINS, TLKM, UNSP, and UNTR.

The positive signals also appeared at the second liner stock charts, such as:
BNBR, BTEL, BKSL, ELTY, KLBF, INDF, KIJA, and TBLA.

Although there's a potential minor correction on profit taking action,
IHSG have a big chance to make a new highest record.
Minor correction moment usually considered as entry point to some
investors to collect some prospect stocks.

Best regards,

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Friday, February 1, 2008

IHSG: Resisted at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement

After freefall about 21% from previous highest level on the beginning of this year, IHSG rebounded and almost recover the position.

But, this rebound resisted and slowed down at 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, as the market subjects still unsure about the next global market movement.





Let's take the bigger picture, recent global market movement strongly influenced by US market sentiment. There were excessive fears about US recession and its impact to the global economy.
But in technical reading, bullish reversal patterns have seen on DJIA and SP500 chart, Butterfly Pattern. According to this pattern, DJIA have possibility to rebound to 13,349 level (78.6% fibonacci retracement) which is almost precisely meet the resistance of  the downtrend channel (see attachment).
This is a critical level. If this resistance could breakthrough, then DJIA potentially make a new high.





Now, back on IHSG, Good signs have seen on indicators, such as MACD and True Strength Index. (see pictures).
Technically, IHSG still have a chance to continue the rally despite some profit taking actions would caused minor correction.

Best regards,

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Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Technical Review on IHSG

Recent IHSG direction confused the most of us. There are many apprehensive about market correction among fellow traders and investor. For “buy and hold” performers, they felt that market is overbought and too high, symptoms of correction have seen.

Technically speaking, recent IHSG chart is dilemmatic. It gives positive signal in daily chart, MACD golden Cross. Just the opposite, weekly chart gives negative signal, MACD Dead Cross.





Considering other indicators, such as Stochastic and William%R, IHSG is nearly at overbought area in daily chart. Meanwhile in weekly chart, IHSG already at overbought area.





I think, it is hard to conclude that correction on IHSG is unlikely.

But for the “Trend follower”, as long as a valid confirmation of change on trend direction is not seen yet, bullish in the mind is still intact.

Trend follower used to confirm market direction with Moving Average (MA) indicator, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100 and MA200.
Currently, IHSG price is above all MA level, which is mean the market is still bullish.

But it is wise to set the cut loss point tightly, in order to reduce loss or save on the hand capital gain if the market direction changes.

I have conviction that market will try and push IHSG to make a new high.
But who knows what happened after a new high occur.

Well, have a safe trading and investing.

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